TV: NESN

Location: Fenway Park

Jacoby Ellsbury CF
Shane Victorino RF
Dustin Pedroia 2B
Mike Napoli 1B
Will Middlebrooks3B
Daniel Nava DH
Jarrod Saltalamacchia C
Stephen Drew SS
Jackie Bradley Jr. LF
Pitching:  Dempster (0-1, 5.40 ERA)

Orioles (3-4, 2-2 away)

Jose Iglesias was optioned to AAA as Stephen Drew was activated. The move shouldn’t be a huge surprise as the club had made it clear that the starting shortstop job was Drew’s, regardless of Iglesias’ play. Iglesias now will get regular at-bats in Pawtucket, a and probably will be making another appearance in Boston eventually. Drew only went 2-for-13 during his rehab stint in Portland but finished it off with a homer in his last game on Monday.

John Lackey was placed on the disabled list. Alfredo Aceves will take his place in the rotation for the time being and 2009 second-round pick Alex Wilson was recalled to fill the roster spot. Aceves will make his first start on Thursday pushing Felix Doubront back to Friday.

David Ortiz begins his rehab assignment in Pawtucket tomorrow.

Time: 2:05 PM

TV: NESN

Location: Fenway Park

TV: NESN

Location: Yankee Stadium 

Blue Jays (1-2, 1-2 home)

News, Notes, and What to Watch For

Sad news: the quest for 162-0 is officially over. Have at it, Chicken Littles.

Ryan Dempster didn’t have the greatest of debuts, and while he certainly hasn’t been crossed off my list of potential least favorite Red Sox players yet (trying to fill the void left by Carl Crawford’s departure), there were some positives. He did have 8 strikeouts, all of which were swinging, and his velocity was encouraging. He topped at about 91 mph, which is about where he was all of last year, and threw a healthy mix of sliders, splitters and two-seamers. He did struggle locating his slider (his favorite pitch from last season, throwing it almost 40% of the time) which resulted in him throwing a higher percentage of fastballs, especially to right-handed hitters. The Yankees got to him in the 2nd inning via a broken-bat single, a ground rule double and another broken-bat single which drove in the two runs. All three outs that inning were strikeouts. He definitely didn’t have the best of luck. Even Brett Gardner’s home run, which he golfed out to right, only traveled 346 feet. It’s not like he was getting hit hard out there. Mixed bag from him, indeed.

Jose Iglesias is third in the majors in batting average. EDIT: As I’m writing this, Lance Berkman’s batting average has taken a hit, and Iglesias is now second in the majors! Assuredly he’ll keep that up. Unfortunately for him, Stephen Drew had his first rehab assignment game in Portland yesterday. The club expects to have him back on Monday for the home opener. Also in Portland: more struggles from Daniel Bard.

The Red Sox lineup is identical to the lineup against Hiroki Kuroda on Wednesday.

John Farrell makes his debut against his former team. Josh Johnson makes his Blue Jays debut tonight.

Buster Olney wrote an interesting piece about Jose Bautista‘s umpire battles. He talked about it on his podcast this morning as well, for those of you that care and don’t have ESPN Insider. Also, Bautista twisted his ankle yesterday, and said after the game that he figured he’d play today, but he is OUT tonight. Rajai Davis replaces him.

Melky Cabrera is 3 hits shy of 1,000 for his career.

TV: NESN, MLBN

Location: Yankee Stadium 

Yankees (0-2, 0-2 home)

Pitching: Pettitte

News, Notes, and What to Watch For

The Red Sox, who have been notorious slow starters of late, seek to go 3-0 for the first time since 1999.

Ryan Dempster makes is Red Sox debut tonight

David Ross is catching for Ryan Dempster. Dempster is making his Red Sox debut and Ross his 2013 Red Sox debut (he had an 8 game stint with the club in 2008; I forgive you if you forgot about that).

The lineup has been slightly altered from Opening Day’s, which was also against a lefty. Ross replaces Saltalamacchia, which subsequently shifted around the 5-8 spots. We’ll see if my theory about the Red Sox crushing left-handed pitchers continues to come to fruition.

Despite Jose Iglesias‘ solid play thus far (huge sample size!), John Farrell made it clear after the game that Stephen Drew wouldn’t lost his job to Iglesias this early in the season simply because Drew got injured. What happens to Iglesias after Drew returns is still an unknown. Drew started his rehab assignment today.

Clay Buchholz’ strong start, despite being against the Yankees (it feels good saying that) should be encouraging because at the very least it took him 10 starts last season to have a game equally as impressive as this. His velocity was predictably less than where he tends to end up later in the season, but his fastball was sitting steadily at 90-91 mph. It wasn’t his best stuff, but it certainly was good enough.

As a Pirates fan, I can assure you that what you that what you saw sampled last night from Joel Hanrahan was definitely The Hammer in mid-season form which is both good and bad. The status quo from him last season seemed to be: let a man or two on base early in the inning and work yourself out of the jam he created. Sure enough, he let the lead off batter on (which wasn’t actually working himself into a jam considering the score) but worked his way out of it. And he worked himself out of it in impressive fashion as Hanrahan’s stuff was also in midseason form. He was commanding his 95-98 mph fastball and mixing in his hard slider as well. He looked vintage all-around last night. I still am a bit bearish on him, but he’s off to a strong start and only time will tell.

If anyone was questioning Daniel Nava‘s placement in the 2-hole, well, he was quickly able to curb some of those doubts. Nava has been an on-base machine against righties during his short MLB career, and so long as Ortiz is out it’s probably a safe bet that he stays in that spot against RHPs for the time being.

Lastly, David Ortiz is expected to start taking part in extended spring training games on Monday, and is targeting a return during the third week of April.

TV: ESPN2

Location: Yankee Stadium 

Yankee Stadium, Opening Day 2013, 9th Inning…EMPTY

Red Sox (1-0, 1-0 away)

Ellsbury CF
Nava DH
Pedroia 2B
Napoli 1B
Saltalamacchia C
Middlebrooks 3B
Victorino RF
Bradley LF
Iglesias SS
Pitching: Buchholz

Yankees (0-1, 0-1 home)

Gardner CF
Suzuki RF
Cano 2B
Youkilis 3B
Hafner DH
Wells LF
Overbay 1B
Nunez SS
Stewart C
Pitching: Kuroda

News, Notes, and What to Watch For

Clay Buchholz makes his first start of the season. Coming off of a strong Spring Training, expectations are relatively high for Buchholz as fans hope he can bounce back from his worst season since his first full stint in the majors back in 2008. Slow starts have plagued the Red Sox the past two seasons (0-6 to start the 2011 season and 1-5 to start the 2012 season) so an opening series win could perhaps qualify as some early season momentum. With rumblings about potentially poor attendance and diminished team expectations (slowly becoming quelled), a fast start could actually do wonders for the club.

The Red Sox will face Hiroki Kuroda, whom they should be plenty familiar with considering he faced the club five times last season, going 2-0 with a tidy 3.60 ERA and especially excelling at home. I felt before the season that the Red Sox would find noteworthy success again left-handed pitchers, especially with Shane Victorino (who stunk last year with the bat, but raked against lefties) and Mike Napoli filling two crucial parts of the lineup. The two prominent lefties in the lineup — Ellsbury and Ortiz — do struggle more against LHP than RHP, but their splits aren’t terribly drastic. I doubt we see a huge difference in overall offensive performance against one or the other, but this will be a solid first test for this lineup.

Initial differences between Monday’s against LHP CC Sabathia and today’s against RHP Kuroda give us Daniel Nava at DH (batting second) replacing Jonny Gomes (who hit 7th on Monday). Nava bumps Victorino down to the 7th spot. Also, Saltalamacchia and Middlebrooks swap the 5th and 6th spots. The rest of the lineup remains unchanged.

Jackie Bradley Jr. had, according to Tim Kurkjian on this morning’s Baseball Tonight Podcast, the “best hitless debut I’ve ever seen by a Major Leaguer in my life “. He became the first player ever to walk three times and drive in a run in his career debut. He fell behind Sabathia 0-2 in his first ever at bat, ended up drawing a walk, made a heads up play on the base paths extending the inning which eventually led to four runs being put up in that frame. He made the defensive play of the game as well. It was one of the most uniquely impressive debuts I’ve ever seen, and his plate discipline was absolutely salivating.

“And your starting first baseman for the New York Yankees, Lyle Overbay!!!!!”

The Yankees’ patchwork lineup figures to be entertaining for the foreseeable future, perhaps of all the wrong (or right) reasons. Tonight we will be blessed with the Yankee debut of The Great Lyle Overbay (now a Pirates, Diamondbacks, Braves and Red Sox reject), Travis Hafner’s first ever start in pinstripes and Chris Stewart’s season debut. Historic!

Dustin Pedroia, who hurt his hand in a headfirst slide in the 9th, is in the lineup. He had his hand examined by doctors, but manager John Farrell said that it’s just a matter of pain tolerance for Pedroia at this point.

And, through ONE WHOLE GAME, the Red Sox have a 39.2% chance of making the playoffs according to PECOTA Projections. I never thought that one game into the 2013 season I’d be feeling this optimistic about the team. PECOTA is Nate Silver’s brainchild, and Nate Silver is the “ LORD AND GOD OF THE ALGORITHM!” 

If he was sent down, it wasn’t going to be a permanent banishment to Pawtucket; he would have missed 9 games out of 162. He would miss a measly 5.5% of the 2013 season in exchange for his team control for 100% of the 2019 season.  Even as tight of division race as everyone is predicting the AL East to be this year, what’s the impact of one hitter out of nine in the lineup over a sample size of nine games?  That’s the question that, if quantifiable, answers the debate of what to do with Bradley.  As a GM, Ben Cherington should be making the best BASEBALL decisions, not the best political decisions for these Sox.  Stick around after the jump, and you’ll see just how little impact the Sox lose without Bradley for 9 games.

Jackie Bradley the Paw Sock, or Jackie Bradley the Red Sox? Which has a better ring to it?

Arbitrarily selecting a stretch of nine games to use as Jackie’s baseline seemed like far too small of a sample size to give any sort of accurate reading.  Instead we’ll review a rolling “Sum of Previous 9 Games” for every game played in 2012 across three indicative offensive categories: the 3 slash line categories (AVG/OBP/SLG), Runs Created (RC) and Total Bases per game (TB/9).  The results are summarized in four easy to read charts for each different analysis technique, which you’ll see below.Statistical analysis in a vacuum is not nearly as helpful as a comparative analysis, so we’ll compare Bradley to a range of MLB players. The first comparison is Daniel Nava, the player that would receive the bulk of the playing time in left if Bradley started the year in AAA (under the assumption that Gomes would be the primary DH while Ortiz rehabs, much like he did yesterday).  To gauge Jackie’s value, we’ll also compare the same metrics for Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera, two of the most prolific offensive players in 2012.  To complete the comparison group we’ll add Alex Gordon, the 2012 player to whom Bradley is most similar according to scouting reports.

In comparing the adjusted numbers for Bradley and the 2012 Alex Gordon, one can’t help but notice just how similar they are: both excelled in walking a good amount (15.3% for Jackie, 10.1% for Gordon) and not killing their team with strikeouts (15.4% for Bradley compared to 19.4%).  Taking into account that Jackie hasn’t played above double-A yet, one could adjust those figures by approximately 8% (an arbitrary number, but trying to plan regression between minor league stats and major league stats is an arbitrary task in and of itself), leaving him with a BB% of 14.1 and K% of 16.6.  Bradley’s unadjusted ISO level (an indicator of power) of .167 is a hair better than Gordon’s .160 mark, and considering Bradley projects to be a top of the order hitter, his runs, RBIs, and Stolen Bases should be in line with Gordon, who led off for the Royals at times last year, and isn’t exactly a burner on the basepaths.

Below are the 4 different analytics for our 5 player sample. As an added treat, we’ve included an adjusted and unadjusted total for Jackie’s Mean scores, in case you choose not to believe in the projected regression.

 Looking at the different buckets, we can observe a few things.   First, even adjusting Jackie’s mean for an increase to the talent level, his OBP rivals that of Trout and Cabrera, but falls comfortably between those two and Nava or Gordon.  Also, his adjusted mean is startlingly close to the 2012 version of Alex Gordon, affirming his choice as a comparison. 

So what does the rest of this data tell us?  That Jackie Bradley is better than Nava, but he’s not Mike Trout or Miguel Cabrera?  What a revelation… I’ll sleep better knowing that!  But seriously, the point of this exercise was originally to show how miniscule the difference is between Bradley and Nava over a 9-game span, and here’s what the numbers tell me:

• In their worst case scenarios from 2012, Nava went 1 for his previous 21; Jackie went 5 for 36.  That’s a difference of 4 hits, and considering 62% of his hits were singles, it’s not likely that we’re talking about a huge difference maker, and the total bases show us that Bradley was good for half a base more than Nava, a marginal upgrade at best
• At their best, Nava was 16 for 27, compared to an 18 for 34 showing from Bradley.  Nava’s high point was actually STRONGER than Bradley’s was, albeit much more short lived.
• Using their median, you see a larger difference, with Bradley’s 10 for 30 total beating Nava’s 8 for 38 total.  Taking Bradley’s .333 average in that set against Nava’s 38 at-bats would give the Sox 5 extra hits in 9 games, most likely 4 singles and a double over what Nava gave them.

Daniel Nava is nothing more than a stopgap/reserve outfielder who has been learning to play first to stay valuable to the organization that gave him a chance to play major league baseball.  No one doubts that.  Jackie Bradley is arguably the most exciting position playing prospect in the system right now, and there’s about to be a hole in the outfield if Gomes does end up taking over for Ortiz at DH.  While it might make sense to play Bradley there, and while it might be the right political move for a franchise that’s been struggling in the court of public opinion over the past 18 months, Ben Cherington should have fought every urge to give in the fans and media and delay Bradley’s free agency by a whole year. Why sacrifice those 9 games for 130+ games in his prime by starting him in AAA?

With Super-Agent Scott Boras at the helm, it’s not very likely the Sox get Bradley to agree to a “team friendly” long term extension. At some point in the season Bradley will go down to extend the service clock of the “CF of the future”, so why not just get it over with in April rather than risk a hot start and face even more backlash sending him down?  This decision seems like a no-brainer… which is probably why he ended up on the Opening Day roster yesterday. 

The bottom line is this: in 2012, Alex Gordon was a 5.7 win player according to his FanGraphs page.  He also happened to play in 161 games.  That means he was worth .035 wins for every game he played. Is losing Bradley for NINE games worth ½ of a win in April?  I get that the fans want something to cheer for, and after his debut yesterday, he certainly did just that, but in terms of true value, there’s probably ¼ of a win between what we’ll get out of him for 9 games what we would have gotten out of Nava for 9 games.  As a fan of this team, you have to ask yourself.. is that really worth losing 2019?

But now there’s news of Britton getting arrested for DUI over the weekend… and then sent to the minor league camp the same weekend. Bryce Brentz was a surprise non-invitee to the major league camp given the hot stove chatter that he was a dark horse candidate as the fourth or fifth outfielder. But Brentz misfired during the offseason, literally and figuratively, and he was given a clear and direct message about what the Red Sox think about him playing with guns.  Alfredo Aceves tested Farrell in the first week of camp, lobbing batting practice pitches rather than working on his arsenal, and he was met with both instant correction from Juan Nieves as well as a “discussion” with Farrell after his session.

This seems to be a pattern and a good one at that.

Farrell is direct about his expectations and deals with issues decisively. Rather than hang his players out to dry in the court of public opinion, he uses reasonable measures to communicate when expectations and conduct have fallen short. It remains to be seen how this style translates to game results but it seems reasonable to assume that the players will respond well to being like adults with both clear expectations and clear rewards/punishments guiding their conduct.

Today was the first day of Spring Training workouts for the Red Sox pitchers and catchers, as well as a number of early-to-report position players, and we are only nine days away from the first split squad games  against Northeastern University and Boston College next Thursday.

Pedroia, Middlebrooks, Napoli, Ortiz take early BP. Photo courtesy of @RedSox

Pitchers and catchers were due to report voluntarily yesterday, and position players will report in a few days. The mandatory date for all non-World Baseball Classic players to report is February 20th. The Red Sox have three participants in the Classic this year: Xander Bogaerts (Netherlands), Alfredo Aceves (Mexico) and Shane Victorino (USA). Bogaerts is with the club right now and will be for the next two weeks before he heads to Arizona to work out with his national team and eventually heads to Taiwan for pool play. Victorino is at camp, but will miss about three weeks of time starting on March 1st, which is a little bit of a concern for the team. Manager John Farrell has repeatedly stressed the importance of Ellsbury, who reported early, and Victorino to get as many reps playing next to each other in the outfield as possible. Aceves has been with the team for two years now, so his brief departure is of little concern.

The first club workout was held this morning and the first full squad practice will take place on Friday.

Today’s news and links

The big story of the day was Clay Buchholz, who strained his hamstring in a pitcher fielding practice drill only hours into day one of camp. He will be re-evaluated on Wednesday. A large collective sigh could be heard from Red Sox fans growing impatient with Buchholz’s perceived injury proneness, but  Buchholz downplayed the injury saying the strain was as “mild as it can be” and that he expects to be back by the weekend. Either way, this is not the way the Red Sox, who used the DL more than any team in baseball last year, wanted to start camp.

Daniel Nava was seen fielding grounders at first base, a position he hasn’t played since his junior college days, as his potential competition Ryan Sweeney looked on probably wondering if he should be doing the same. While it might be much ado about nothing, it could perhaps be a further indication that first base depth is a bit of a worry for the club right now.

Lyle Overbay took extra reps at first base as well. According to Nick Cafardo, Overybay, who is signed to a minor league deal and competing for a backup spot, has talked about getting some reps in at left field, a position he played last played in college. He also spent time with Arizona hitting coach Don Baylor and they worked on shortening his swing which he claims had gotten a bit “long” and perhaps contributed to his disappointing last few seasons.

David Ortiz said that he will be ready by opening day, and said that he is at about 90% health and has zero fears about his Achilles. He has been working out for a few weeks now and has been able to hit without any pain. Ortiz, who was one of the few to speak out in defense of Bobby Valentine last year, did have some less-than-stellar things to say about his former manager on Tuesday as well.

New addition Mike Napoli took some hacks in the batting cage this morning, and claims to be ready to go. Farrell did say later on in the day that the team plans on limiting his hitting early on and restricting certain baseball activities for Napoli. He’ll undergo another MRI later in the week and based on the result they’ll decide how to progress and what baseball activities they can move on to. Both sides did sound optimistic for the season, and if all goes well he’ll start receiving reps at first base early next week.

Jose Iglesias, who could be fighting for an opening day spot, said that he had the best of season of his life. He worked with Dustin Pedroia this offseason in Arizona and said that he has gained confidence and is entering camp with a completely new mindset as compared to recent seasons. He also told reporters that while he was surprised that the club signed Stephen Drew, he views it as motivation and understands the team needs to do what’s best for the team. Iglesias also entered camp 8 pounds heavier after the club recommended he add a little bulk in an effort to improve his hitting.

Bryce Brentz, the organization’s 6th rated prospect according to soxprospects.com, recently shot himself while reportedly cleaning a gun. Why the gun was loaded while he was cleaning it is anyone’s guess, but the injury is not serious and he participated in activities this morning.

John Lackey visibly looked to be in great shape and much slimmer, and the mood around camp seemed very optimistic. Jon Lester had nothing but nice words to say about Lackey on and off the field. Lackey figures to be a solidifying force in the clubhouse, a clubhouse which figures to see a drastic change in atmosphere — hopefully for the better. John Farrell recently named him as one of the five starters, so the expectations from him certainly are clear. He enters camp with absolutely no restrictions and a subtle hunger for redemption. His interview with Tom Caron and Peter Gammons is certainly worth a watch.

Will Middlebrooks recently talked to Evan Longoria about rehabbing his broken wrist, and enters camp with no restrictions.

Farrell stated the other day that Felix Doubront and Craig Breslow were going to be “held back” some at camp due some discomfort felt during long-toss, but both players seem upbeat about camp and don’t figure to be restricted for long. Doubront shattered his career high in innings last year with 161 pitched, and despite being shut down for a few starts in August, showed no signs of wearing down during his last four starts in which he posted a 3.08 ERA to close the season. He spoke about a goal to pitch 200 innings this year

Daniel Bard reportedly was throwing all his pitches today in a bullpen session and by all accounts looked great.

Here are some video links.

David Ortiz reports early to camp

Ryan Dempster speaks on the importance of Spring Training

Mike Napoli take cuts in the batting cage

The team will be back on the field tomorrow at 9:30. Check back in for more updates.

It has certainly been an interesting offseason for the Boston Red Sox.  They have teased many big time acquisitions for the team but have rarely pulled the trigger on said targets.  That was certainly not the case this past Monday, however, when the team announced that they had signed all star shortstop Stephen Drew to a one year deal to play for the team.  Whether Drew is a success or utter failure, you can bet he will affect how the Red Sox are seen as it pertains to MLB picks for the 2013 season.

Drew, who has played in the league since 2006 when he was called up from the Arizona Diamond Backs Triple A squad to replace an injured player, made a name for himself over the past six years and will certainly be reaping the benefits of it in Boston.  He will be paid over nine million dollars to take up the short stop position for the team and will be offered another half million in bonuses if he performs up to standard.  This is a great deal for the player and could lead him to much bigger success than he has already seen.  This is also the case for Boston, who has been on the lookout for a good short stop for the past few years.  If they can all get their ducks in a row and start winning games, this could very well be a an extremely lucrative situation for all involved.

As it pertains to huge acquisitions the Boston Red Sox could get in the 2012 offseason, few rank as high as Stephen Drew.  He offers a refreshing situation for the teams infield and could very well help them to another World Series.  It all depends on whether he comes out to play or not in 2013.

With so much going on during the offseason, many have been wondering what the Boston Red Sox will do to improve their chances for the playoffs in 2013.  Apparently, one of their major plans is to improve their outfield as they have firmly set their sights on free agent outfielder/first baseman Nick Swisher.  With the addition of him, the Red Sox may become logical MLB picks for the upcoming season.

One of the main reasons Swisher would be such a good fit in Boston is the fact that he is a switch hitter that would immensely help their struggles on offense.  The team did not look good at all behind the plate in 2012 and needs all the help they can get going forward into the upcoming season.  While Swisher would help them out a great deal, the team reportedly is hesitant to sign him to the six year contract he wants, and there are a few other teams that have their sights on the player.  With the Indians reportedly very interested in Swisher, Boston will need to figure out a deal that they want to make for him soon if they want his help in the 2013 season.  If not, then they will surely be playing against him next season and many more to come.

When it comes to players that would help get the Red Sox out of their slump in the 2013 season, Nick Swisher has got to be at the top of the list.  He offers expertise in areas that the team has been struggling with and would surely wave the Red Sox flag high.  He does come with a price, however, and Boston will have to decide whether they want to pay it soon if they want him on their team.  Otherwise, he will surely end up on another ball club come this time next season.